LEXINGTON, Ky. — We don’t care what Schoolhouse Rock says. TWO is a magic number.
Two points are all that separate the Lexington Sporting Club men from clinching their first-ever playoff berth. That means LSC can secure its postseason spot in two ways this weekend:
Beat FC Tulsa on Friday night or
Las Vegas Lights FC draws or loses at Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday
Seeding is still wide open. The eight clubs in playoff position are separated by just nine points. With three matches left for everyone, all eight could still, in theory, finish first in the West.
Here’s a look at the table as things stand:
The mathematicians among us will appreciate this equation: LSC in fourth + four points behind Conference-leading El Paso Locomotive FC + three matches left = a real shot at winning the West.
THE RUN-IN
Five clubs sit within five points of first place, so they have the best odds of finishing on top. We measured each club’s remaining strength of schedule by averaging the points per match earned by its remaining opponents.
El Paso Locomotive FC (1st, 47 points)
Vs. Orange County SC (10W-8L-9D)
Vs. Sacramento Republic FC (11W-5L-11D)
Vs. New Mexico United FC (13W-7L-7D)
Strength of Schedule: 1.59
New Mexico United FC (2nd, 46 points)
Vs. Monterey Bay FC (5W-16L-6D)
At San Antonio FC (9W-7L-11D)
At El Paso Locomotive FC (14W-8L-5D)
Strength of Schedule: 1.31
Sacramento Republic FC (3rd, 44 points)
Vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (11W-9L-7D)
At El Paso Locomotive FC (14W-8L-5D)
Vs. Oakland Roots SC (8W-9L-10D)
Strength of Schedule: 1.49
Lexington Sporting Club (4th, 43 points)
Vs. FC Tulsa (11W-7L-9D)
At Las Vegas Lights FC (10W-11L-6D)
At Phoenix Rising FC (8W-10L-9D)
Strength of Schedule: 1.37
FC Tulsa (5th, 42 points)
At Lexington Sporting Club (13W-10L-4D)
Vs. Oakland Roots SC (8W-9L-10D)
At Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (11W-9L-7D)
Strength of Schedule: 1.44
What it Means
New Mexico has the easiest road, followed by Lexington, Tulsa, Sacramento and, last, El Paso. The Locomotive hold just a one-point lead over New Mexico, and they face the toughest closing schedule of the group. Will a one-point cushion hold up?
USL Tactics’ model says the West finishes in its current order, with Lexington fourth and hosting a First Round match against Tulsa, this Friday’s opponent.
A word of caution on that model, though. The last time we checked in on Sept. 17, it projected Lexington to add nine points over its final six matches. The Greens collected nine in just the first three.
TLDR — everything is still wide open, but it’s a promising outlook for the Greens after knocking off El Paso last weekend. Lexington is the hottest club in the league and sits No. 1 in both the USL Championship and Backheeld power rankings. They have scored 16 goals in their last four matches.
We wouldn’t bet against them.
After all, it’s the Year of the Horse.
