LEXINGTON, Ky. — It’s about that time.
Now halfway through the penultimate month of the regular season, the minds of USL Championship fans across the nation inevitably wander to postseason positioning. With nine clubs separated by only 10 points in the Western Conference, the playoff picture is just as muddy as it appeared months ago.
The good news for Lexington fans? The Greens are right in the thick of the playoff picture.
Currently occupying eighth place in the West, Lexington could vault all the way up to third in the conference with a win over Orange County SC Saturday night.
USL Tactics currently gives Lexington a 75% chance to make the playoffs and projects the club to earn nine more points by the end of the season. We think those numbers are light.
LSC will pick up double-digit points before the end of the current campaign, and here’s why.
Remaining Strength of Schedule
Let’s take a look at the remaining strength of schedules of those nine clubs all within 10 points of one another. To do so, we calculated the average points per match earned by every club in the USL Championship through this point in the season, then averaged the points per match of those nine clubs’ remaining opponents.
Lexington’s remaining schedule looks as follows.
The average points per match earned from LSC’s remaining opponents is 1.39.
Below is the remaining strength of schedule for the other clubs within 10 points of one another.
Colorado Springs — 1.42 (six matches remaining)
Tulsa — 1.44 (seven matches remaining)
Sacramento — 1.53 (seven matches remaining)
Orange County — 1.39 (six matches remaining)
San Antonio — 1.57 (six matches remaining)
Phoenix — 1.51 (six matches remaining)
Las Vegas — 1.31 (six matches remaining)
Oakland — 1.50 (six matches remaining)
Lexington’s 1.39 remaining strength of schedule makes it the second easiest of the group, tied with Orange County and more difficult than only Las Vegas Lights FC.
Breaking Down Lexington’s Remaining Schedule
Looking at LSC’s six remaining matches, three will take place out west while the other three will be played at The Stables.
Its three remaining road matches — at Monterey Bay FC, Las Vegas Lights FC, and Phoenix Rising FC — are all against clubs below the playoff line. Tack on last weekend’s win over Oakland, and that’s four straight road matches to close the season against the bottom four clubs in the conference.
Its three home matches — vs. Orange County SC, vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, vs. FC Tulsa — are all against opponents LSC has earned points against, despite each currently sitting ahead of LSC in the table. It previously drew Orange County and FC Tulsa on the road, as well as beat El Paso 4-1.
On paper, its three easier opponents are away from home. Its three more difficult opponents are at home. Just how you’d draw it up.
Additionally, Lexington is 4W-1L-2D against its remaining opponents after one clash with each (and two with Monterey Bay) earlier this season.
Resurgence at the Right Time?
Lexington had its best run in club history earlier this summer. It went 7W-1L-1D in nine matches, a club record for points earned over a nine-match stretch.
Given the ebbs and flows of a 34-match season and how hard that run of form is to sustain, the Greens then dropped three matches on the bounce for the first time since last season.
However, Lexington’s 4-1 beatdown on Oakland last weekend is the kind of result that can spark a club late in the season.
Forward Phillip Goodrum tallied a hat trick. Marcus Epps scored and assisted. Blaine Ferri tallied two assists. All three men, plus Xavier Zengue, were named to the Week 28 Team of the Week.
If Lexington can carry that form and its re-established momentum, it could do far more than just sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.
