LEXINGTON, Ky. — It’s not a stretch to say this past week was the biggest in Lexington Sporting Club women’s history.
The Gals in Green not only secured the club’s first-ever playoff berth, but beat No. 1-seeded Sporting Jax on the road the following weekend. The victory narrowed the gap between Lexington and JAX to only one point with three matches left to play.
The fourth and final Gainbridge Super League playoff spot is still up for grabs with three clubs jockeying for a postseason appearance. However, we don’t really care about that today.
What we are going to focus on are the three squads atop the standings entrenched in a fight for the top two spots — the ones that grant the rights to host a playoff match.
Those clubs are yours truly, Sporting JAX and Carolina Ascent FC.
When Could LSC Clinch a Home Playoff Spot?
What will it take for LSC to secure home field advantage in the First Round?
Lexington has a match in hand over Carolina Ascent FC — LSC has three to play, Carolina only has two and does not play again until May 9 at Fort Lauderdale.
To secure the No. 2 seed and a home playoff match, LSC needs to exceed Carolina’s maximum number of points possible.
Lexington currently sits on 46 points. Carolina’s max points is 51. That makes LSC’s magic number six without factoring in tiebreakers (more on this later).
Basic math tells us that if LSC wins two of its last three matches, regardless of Carolina’s results, Lexington would secure the No. 2 seed.
The earliest the Gals in Green could clinch a home playoff spot is actually off the field Saturday, May 9. If Lexington beats Spokane Zephyr FC Saturday and Carolina loses to Fort Lauderdale May 9, LSC would secure a home playoff match before it hits the pitch vs. Brooklyn on May 10.
The first tiebreaker in the Gainbridge Super League is goal differential, a stat Lexington leads Carolina in by +16 goals. However, goal differential is not technically finalized until the end of the season. This means that although LSC should be in the clear with a magic number of five, barring an extreme collapse in goal differential, it would not officially clinch until it secures an extra point or Carolina drops one.
Remaining Strength of Schedules
Now we know what it takes for LSC to clinch a home playoff match. We also know Lexington has its sights set on more than just the No. 2 seed — it wants the Players’ Shield.
With JAX, LEX and CAR all within two points of one another and vying for the same prizes, who has the easiest path (on paper) to get there?
We calculated each of the following clubs’ remaining strength of schedule by calculating the average points per match of their remaining opponents.
Lexington Sporting Club
at Spokane Zephyr FC (9W-L-8D, 32 points)
vs Brooklyn FC (6W-11L-8D, 26 points)
vs Tampa Bay Sun FC (4W-12L-9D, 21 points)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 1.05 points per match
Sporting JAX
vs Brooklyn FC (6W-11L-8D, 26 points)
at DC Power FC (8W-9L-8D, 32 points)
at Carolina Ascent FC (13W-7L-6D, 45 points)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 1.35 points per match
Carolina Ascent FC
at Fort Lauderdale United FC (5W-12L-8D, 23 points)
vs Sporting JAX (14W-6L-5D, 47 points)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 1.4 points per match
While anything can happen any given week in the Gainbridge Super League, Lexington has the most favorable remaining schedule of the three clubs competing to host a playoff match and for the Players’ Shield.
