LEXINGTON, Ky. — Heading into Week 27 of the Gainbridge Super League season, the Lexington Sporting Club women have history in their sights — the opportunity to clinch the first playoff berth in club history.
More often than not, clinching this early in the season requires a variety of variables to play out in a certain way. But thanks to Lexington’s searing form all season, it controls its own destiny with a win Saturday.
Lexington’s magic number entering play is 2, meaning a combination of LSC earning two points or DC Power FC, the club currently acting as the playoff line, dropping two points secures a playoff spot.
Here is a simple breakdown of what happens if a variety of scenarios occur.
With a Win
It’s as easy as it comes — if Lexington beats last-place Tampa Bay Sun FC Saturday night, it clinches. No ifs, ands or buts.
For the majority of the squad, it would mark their first Gainbridge Super League playoff appearance. For Addie McCain, Darya Rajaee and Tati Fung, it would be the second. All three players appeared in both of Fort Lauderdale’s playoff matches last season.
For LSC fans, here’s hoping none of the rest of this article really ends up mattering.
What About DC Power/Spokane?
Before getting into the draw and loss scenarios, it’s worth setting the table on the other clubs involved in the clinching conversation.
DC Power FC does not compete until Wednesday, April 22. Lexington’s ability to clinch this weekend is solely affected by Lexington alone.
There is also a possibility that by the time DC begins its match next Wednesday, Spokane is actually acting as the playoff line.
For this to happen, Spokane would need to beat Sporting JAX this weekend and win by at least three goals. However, we will continue to use DC as the playoff line for the sake of probability.
Again, if Lexington wins Saturday, the following scenarios are mooted.
With a Draw
Lexington does not clinch with a draw this weekend, but would lower its magic number down to 1. Things would then get interesting heading into next week, with these scenarios all resulting in an off-field clinch:
LEX draw vs. Tampa Bay + DC draw Wednesday = Lexington clinches
LEX draw vs. Tampa Bay + DC loss Wednesday = Lexington clinches
The only outcome that keeps Lexington waiting: DC wins.
With a Loss
A loss this weekend still keeps the door open, with Lexington’s immediate fate then hinging on DC next Wednesday:
LEX loss vs. Tampa Bay + DC draw Wednesday = Lexington clinches
LEX loss vs. Tampa Bay + DC loss Wednesday = Lexington clinches
Again, the only outcome that keeps Lexington waiting: DC wins.
Other Action Across the League
While DC is the only club directly involved in the clinching conversation at the moment, it is still worth taking a look at the other clubs currently in the playoff mix for seeding purposes.
Sporting JAX
Sporting JAX has already clinched a playoff spot and is the only club in the Gainbridge Super League to do so. While currently in line for the No. 1 seed, there is still plenty of time for LSC to catch the league leaders — especially considering the two face off next Saturday, April 25 in Florida.
This weekend, JAX travels west to take on Spokane Zephyr FC. Should Spokane beat Sporting JAX this weekend and LSC prove victorious the following weekend, LSC would only trail the top seed by one point.
Ideal outcome: Sporting JAX loss
Carolina Ascent FC
Carolina closed the gap between itself and Lexington last weekend with a 1-0 victory. LSC now leads the side by just one point. As a reminder, only the top two clubs in the league host in the first round of the playoffs. The Gals in Green would not mind some cushion there.
It is also worth noting the Ascent is the only club currently in playoff position on 24 matches played. Everyone else in the picture has only played 23.
Carolina is at fourth-place Dallas Trinity FC this weekend, the next club we will talk about.
Ideal outcome: No spoilers — you’ll have to read three more sentences.
Dallas Trinity FC
Dallas is currently in possession of the final postseason spot, rounding out the playoff picture. While Lexington currently leads Dallas by eight points, there is no sense in Dallas getting any closer either.
Three points for either Carolina or Dallas is not ideal from a Lexington perspective, but if one has to win, Dallas would be the pick.
Ideal outcome: Draw
