It’s crunch time, Lexington.
Only seven matches remain on the docket for LSC in 2025 and the Western Conference playoff race is a suffocating one. While two spots in the East have already been secured, nobody in the West has punched their ticket to November yet.
Lexington currently sits in fourth place and in possession of a home playoff match as things stand (31 points). However, four clubs linger right below LSC with 30 points, teetering on the edge of missing the playoffs entirely.
The good news? If Lexington takes care of business, nothing else matters.
Terry Boss’ side controls its own destiny. Per John Morrissey of Backheeled and USL Tactics, Lexington has an 87% chance of making the playoffs.
Things are so tight in the West that the glorious Magic Number talk is still fuzzy, but we will get there too when the time is right, we promise.
Although the coaches and players do not need to scoreboard watch, we like to. So let’s break down what to watch for this week in the USL Championship’s Western Conference. What results best help Lexington SC in the playoff race?
It will be a relatively straightforward edition — there are lots of out-of-conference matchups in Week 28 (spoiler alert). We’ll be looking exclusively at contests that could affect LSC’s current position in the standings this weekend.
Week 28 Schedule
Rhode Island FC (24 points, 9th in East) vs. Sacramento Republic FC (37 points, 2nd in West) — Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET
Starting off with an easy one here. The records almost don’t matter since it is an East vs. West battle — of course a Western Conference club losing to an Eastern Conference club benefits LSC. More on Sacramento later.
Best Outcome: Rhode Island win
New Mexico United (30 points, 6th in West) vs. Detroit City FC (32 points, 6th in East) — Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET
Similar to the first matchup, it’s an easy call with an out-of-conference matchup. New Mexico is one of those four clubs sitting on 30 points in the West, and Lexington SC would love to separate from that pack.
Best Outcome: Detroit City win
North Carolina FC (33 points, 4th in East) vs. El Paso Locomotive FC (32 points, 3rd in West) — Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Don’t watch this match — come out to Lexington SC’s match vs. Orange County SC instead!
But as you’re checking FotMob from Lexington SC Stadium, it’s another no-brainer. El Paso sits one spot ahead of LSC in the standings and leads the Greens by only one point. A North Carolina result, a squad perhaps fueled by frustration after being stifled by Lexington last Friday night, could prove massive.
Best Outcome: North Carolina win
Loudoun United FC (37 points, 3rd in East) vs. San Antonio FC (30 points, 7th in West) — Saturday, 5 p.m. ET
San Antonio FC, another 30-point club breathing down Lexington’s neck, is winless in its last eight matches across all competitions. Loudoun, conversely, is 3W-1L-1D over its last five league outings. This week, we join our horse brethren in solidarity.
Best Outcome: Loudoun win
Tampa Bay Rowdies (21 points, 8th in East) vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (30 points, 8th in West) — Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
It’s been a difficult season for the Rowdies, a club that has been associated with tremendous success nearly every year since it entered the USL-C in 2017. But if the Eastern Conference side could pull off a win on Saturday against the reigning champs and another member of the 30-point club, it would help break up the table.
Best Outcome: Tampa Bay win
New Mexico United (30 points, 6th in West) vs. FC Tulsa (43 points, 1st in West) — Saturday, 9 p.m. ET
This ideal result of this matchup somewhat relies on how New Mexico’s midweek matchup vs. DCFC plays out. With only one point separating Lexington from the Black and Yellow as opposed to 12 separating the Greens from Tulsa, LSC likely views New Mexico as the more urgent threat.
However, a draw to keep a club ahead of you in the standings closer is rarely a bad result either.
Best Outcome: Tulsa win or draw
Sacramento Republic FC (37 points, 2nd in West) vs. Phoenix Rising (30 points, 5th in West) — Saturday, 10 p.m. ET
Rounding out the 30-point clubs in the West is Phoenix Rising. This bout resembles New Mexico vs. Tulsa, but the gap between Sacramento and Lexington is closer than that between Lexington and Tulsa (six points vs. 12), suggesting LSC could still easily catch second-place Sacramento.
You could make the argument here that a Phoenix loss is paramount, but we are going with the angle that Lexington can catch Sacramento — therefore we don’t want the Quails to claim all three points.
Best Outcome: draw