Heading into the final match of the 2025 USL Championship regular season, Lexington SC only trails a playoff spot by one point.
It’s do or die for LSC who can clinch its first-ever postseason berth in a multitude of ways Saturday night in Oakland.
Some of the scenarios are incredibly simple. Others get a bit more complicated. But we’re here to break down every possible clinching scenario for Lexington SC heading into the season finale.
How the USL Championship Playoffs Work
Eight clubs make the playoffs from each conference. The top four host a playoff match, five through eight are on the road.
Tiebreakers
When clubs are tied on points at the end of the season, tiebreakers come into play. There are nine tiebreaking criteria as defined by the USL Championship in order of importance:
1. Head-to-Head Points Earned in Regular Season Matches
2. Goal Differential in Head-to-Head Matches
3. PPG vs. in-Conference Opponents in Regular Season League Matches
4. Total Wins in Regular Season League Matches
5. Goal Differential in Regular Season League Matches
6. Goals Scored in Regular Season League Matches
7. Points earned against top four Conference finishers (except that if the number of such matches is unequal, then points will be divided by the number matches played against the top four Conference finishers to arrive at a common basis for comparison)
8. Number of disciplinary points (i.e., fewest disciplinary points)
9. Lottery conducted by the League
Mini Groups
If three or more clubs are tied on points, they form a “mini group” where the same tiebreaking criteria apply to all clubs rather than just two.
For example, if Club A, Club B and Club C are all tied on points, you would factor in Club A’s record against Club B and Club C, then do the same for the others. The club with the best overall record in the mini group earns the highest seed.
Lexington SC’s Clinching Scenarios
With the jargon defined and rules in place, let’s get into how Lexington SC can clinch this weekend.
LSC Win at OAK AND:
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draw/loss at FC Tulsa
OR
San Antonio FC draw/loss vs. El Paso Locomotive FC
OR
Orange County SC draw/loss vs. Indy Eleven
LSC Win at OAK Mini Group Scenario 1
If Lexington wins and the following occurs, a mini group will form with all three clubs tied on 39 points:
Phoenix Rising FC loss at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
AND
Orange County SC win vs. Indy Eleven
Lexington SC would finish first in the mini group (LEX: 2W-0L-2D, 8 pnts) (OC: 1W-1L-2D, 5 pnts) (PHX: 1W-3L-0D, 3 pnts)
LSC Draw at Oak AND:
Orange County SC loss vs. Indy Eleven
LSC Draw at OAK Mini Group Scenario 1
If Lexington draws and the following occurs, a mini group will form with all four clubs tied on 39 points:
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC win at FC Tulsa
AND
San Antonio FC loss vs. El Paso Locomotive FC
AND
Orange County SC draw vs. Indy Eleven
Lexington SC would finish third in the mini group (OC: 3W-1L-2D, 11 pnts) (SA: 3W-3L-0D, 9 pnts) (LEX: 2W-2L-2D, 8 pnts) (COS: 2W-4L-0D, 6 pnts)
LSC Draws at OAK Mini Group Scenario 2
If Lexington draws and the following occurs, a mini group will form with all four clubs tied on 37 points:
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC win/draw at FC Tulsa
AND
San Antonio FC loss vs. El Paso Locomotive FC
AND
Orange County SC draw vs. Indy Eleven
Lexington SC would finish second in the mini group (SA: 2W-2L-0D, 6 pnts, +1 GD) (LEX: 1W-1L-2D, 5 pnts, 0 GD) (OC: 1W-1L-2D, 5 pnts, -1 GD)
LSC Draws at OAK Mini Group Scenario 3
If Lexington draws and the following occurs, a mini group will form with all three clubs tied on 37 points:
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loss at FC Tulsa
AND
Orange County SC draw vs. Indy Eleven
AND
San Antonio FC win/draw vs. El Paso Locomotive FC
Lexington SC would finish second in the mini group (OC: 2W-2L-0D, 8 pnts) (LEX: 1W-1L-2D, 5 pnts) (COS: 1W-3L-0D, 3 pnts)